The Bitcoin network undergoes what is called “halving” roughly every four years – a period at the end of which network rewards for miners are cut in half.
As noted by the analyst, BTC price has reached a bottom well before the halving, as observed over since 2015.
“In 2015, BTC bottomed 547 days before the Halving. In 2018, $BTC bottomed 517 days before the Halving (discount March 2020 crash).”
The bottoms preceded the July 2016 block reward halving, which reduced miner rewards from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. The 2018 bottom preceded the third halving, which occurred in May 2020 and cut block rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
Going by the previous halvings, Rekt notes:
“If Bitcoin is going to bottom 517-547 days before the upcoming April 2024 halving … then the bottom will occur in Q4 this year.”
On when this is most likely to be and what happens to Bitcoin price next, the analyst suggests October or November. And Bitcoin could see several price scenarios, including a “slow bleed” and accumulation.
“But BTC has dropped so much lately that it’s difficult to think the bottom won’t be in sooner. How could we get a Q4 2022 bottom? Slow-bleed, some relief, lots of consolidation,” he tweeted.
He thinks the consolidation to extend as far as December 2022.